What Music's Next Growth Phase Will Look Like

For today’s episode and memo, we’re joined by Will Page. We discussed the state of streaming, why we’ve reached “peak oil,” the case for completion, and more. You can listen here or read below for a few highlights.

Music’s “peak oil” moment

“The music industry has peaked” is a statement that makes me roll my eyes. It’s a Western-centric, major label-centric take that lacks broader context. Peaked? The notion makes me feel like Noah Lyles saying, "World Champion of what?! The United States??"

But “peak oil” is slightly different. There’s a theoretical time when global oil production will hit the maximum rate and slow down. Similarly, in music streaming, we knew there would be an inevitable moment where subscriber growth slows down and future growth will be slower, more expensive, and less valuable unless it's acquired from competitors. According to Will Page, we’ve reached that moment.

Here’s what he shared in our episode:

“Now if I just use some very rare numbers, if we assume that the first 100 million music subscribers in the United States were largely, predominantly iPhone users. then that has to mean that the next hundred million are going to come from Android.

And that's a great example of peak oil. Those Android customers are going to be harder to acquire and their lifetime value might be less over time. So the next hundred million is going to be a lot tougher to get out of the ground. So we have that influence on the market and I think you can look back at the streaming services and ask, Which of these services is best placed to tackle the Android market?

When you look at the four horsemen that are out there, I think I know which horse I'm going to back.”

The “four horsemen” are Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube, and Amazon Music. The next 100 subscribers will be harder than the first 100 subscribers. This is where each company’s strategy takes over. Streaming growth for each of these services in 2014 - 2021 was like selling water to people in a drought. It was easy, especially considering all the free trials for a service that’s quite inexpensive. But streaming growth since 2022 is more like selling water to a whale. You have to be a hustler to pull that off.

A case for completion

The streaming payout model is far from perfect but any proposed improvements will face pushback. It’s a zero-sum game. Even if people agree in theory, no one wants their slice to be smaller for the sake of the pie. It’s music’s version of NIMBY (not in my backyard). The status quo needs to be modeled against for changes to move forward.

Will’s proposal for completion, which values songs streamed to their entirety more than songs that are skipped before the end, is a move for more fairness in the royalty system. It’s an effort to move to improve the fraud and manipulation that the 30-second threshold can create.

In true fashion, Will had all the rebuttals ready. He did the Eminem in 8 Mile thing where he called out all of the pushbacks before they even came.

The report includes this quote that I agree with: “Whataboutism’ always prevails when you complete a model and pause to think about what might be missing.”

If you’re reading this newsletter, you’ve likely read ideas on how to improve streaming payouts, or the music industry overall. From multipliers for artists, you start your streaming session with, to user-centric, from duration of song streamed, to higher payouts, and more. But many of those ideas are a bit more complex to implement. Completion is straightforward and easy. It’s additive and doesn’t take away from existing thresholds.

Breadth and depth

For most artists, their total streams are often subject to the power law. It’s not uncommon for their top few songs to account for almost all their total stream counts. It’s a hits-driven business, which we can quantify more easily thanks to streaming.

But some artists have much more breath than others. Here's Will's case study on the catalog of the legendary songwriter, Carole King:

She has hits, but the top five only account for 50% of her streams. There could be a number of reasons why:

- This music reaches a generation of lean-back listeners, as opposed to more contemporary artists who made hit singles in the age of MTV and TikTok‍

- “It’s Too Late” is popular, but others like “You’ve Got a Friend” aren’t too far behind

- King focused on creating a true body of work, not just a few hits

Which other artists would fit a similar profile? I said, James Taylor. Will said The Beatles. I would love to hear your thoughts as well.

if you enjoyed this, you should listen to our full episode. Will and I also discussed:

- Winners and losers of glocalization (with exclusive data on Denmark, Brazil, and Australia)

- Why children’s music is more likely to be streamed to completion

- the herbivores and carnivores of music-streaming

Chartmetric Stat of the Week - Carole King

Her biggest hit, "It's Too Late," is one of those staples that always gets played on U.S. terrestrial radio stations. In the past year, the song had over 21,462 weekly airplay spins, a number that has grown nearly 33% in the past year.